Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $537 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$537.27

Combined PnL

$1.59

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$533.24

Total Shares536

Combined PnL-$1.43

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.03

Total Shares1,009

Combined PnL+$3.03

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.8¢	$210.5	$209.99	-$0.51	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.8¢	$145.44	$145.04	-$0.39	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$81.84	$81.63	-$0.2	27% 104-283 (387)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.95	$49.78	-$0.17	28% 522-1370 (1892)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$41.69	$41.54	-$0.15	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.26	$5.25	-$0.01	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.01	$4.03	+$3.03	— 0-9 (9)

cigarettes

Invested

$210.5

Value

$209.99

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

Lucerys

Invested

$145.44

Value

$145.04

PnL

-$0.39

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$81.84

Value

$81.63

PnL

-$0.2

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.78

PnL

-$0.17

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$41.69

Value

$41.54

PnL

-$0.15

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$3.03

Record

—

0-9 (9)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.