Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-11-07?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$1.1K
$14.32
74.9¢ → 76.5¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 74.6¢ | $645.02 | $659.16 | +$14.14 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 74.6¢ | $213.02 | $207.24 | -$5.78 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 77.1¢ | $125.14 | $124.16 | -$0.98 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $98.63 | $105.35 | +$6.71 | 57% 2109-1562 (3671) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $34.06 | $35.22 | +$1.16 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $21.7 | $6.75 | +$0.05 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $5.38 | $5.37 | -$0.01 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $5.88 | $4.97 | -$0.91 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $1.25 | $1.17 | -$0.07 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
Invested
$645.02
Value
$659.16
PnL
+$14.14
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$213.02
Value
$207.24
PnL
-$5.78
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$125.14
Value
$124.16
PnL
-$0.98
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
oieshfn345Invested
$98.63
Value
$105.35
PnL
+$6.71
Record
57%
2109-1562 (3671)
Invested
$34.06
Value
$35.22
PnL
+$1.16
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$21.7
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$5.38
Value
$5.37
PnL
-$0.01
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$4.97
PnL
-$0.91
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.