Wrexham AFC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 60¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 22%
$4.5K
-$338.69
53.4¢ → 59.5¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xNuttawut | Underavg 53.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$51.13 | 51% 1236-1201 (2437) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 47.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$235.39 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $479.76 | $413.22 | -$66.54 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 47.4¢ | $130.25 | $111.38 | -$18.87 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $88.68 | $95.28 | +$6.6 | 53% 62307-54551 (116858) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 22.6¢ | $15.87 | $34.71 | +$18.85 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.1¢ | $25.49 | $22.88 | -$2.61 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $7.22 | $14.3 | +$7.08 | 49% 14981-15890 (30871) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 23.9¢ | $3.11 | $6.44 | +$3.33 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
Invested
$2,426.21
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$51.13
Record
51%
1236-1201 (2437)
Invested
$1,614.97
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$235.39
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$479.76
Value
$413.22
PnL
-$66.54
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$130.25
Value
$111.38
PnL
-$18.87
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
RN1<$100Invested
$88.68
Value
$95.28
PnL
+$6.6
Record
53%
62307-54551 (116858)
Invested
$15.87
Value
$34.71
PnL
+$18.85
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
Invested
$25.49
Value
$22.88
PnL
-$2.61
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$14.3
PnL
+$7.08
Record
49%
14981-15890 (30871)
Invested
$3.11
Value
$6.44
PnL
+$3.33
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.