Wrexham AFC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 0.5
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 90¢ · $509 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 22%
$509.14
-$7.8
91¢ → 90¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 91¢ | $432.25 | $427.5 | -$4.75 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 10.9¢ | $36.17 | $33.09 | -$3.08 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $24.3 | $24.3 | +$0 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $13.65 | $13.5 | -$0.15 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $3.23 | $4.02 | +$0.79 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $2.6 | $2 | -$0.6 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $2.8 | $2 | -$0.8 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 | 65% 24597-12971 (37568) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $0.94 | $0.72 | -$0.22 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
Invested
$432.25
Value
$427.5
PnL
-$4.75
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$36.17
Value
$33.09
PnL
-$3.08
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$24.3
Value
$24.3
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$13.65
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$3.23
Value
$4.02
PnL
+$0.79
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.8
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$1
Value
$2
PnL
+$1
Record
65%
24597-12971 (37568)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.94
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.