Will Wrexham AFC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 33%
$1.1K
-$47.73
66¢ → 61.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 66¢ | $447.35 | $416.85 | -$30.5 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $265.83 | $259.07 | -$6.76 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 66.3¢ | $160.34 | $148.8 | -$11.55 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $92.75 | $91.32 | -$1.43 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.4¢ | $76.55 | $81.08 | +$4.53 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $81.53 | $70.36 | -$11.17 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $41.59 | $48.63 | +$7.04 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $12.21 | $14.25 | +$2.04 | 53% 62307-54551 (116858) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $8.89 | $8.96 | +$0.07 | 57% 2109-1562 (3671) |
Invested
$447.35
Value
$416.85
PnL
-$30.5
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$265.83
Value
$259.07
PnL
-$6.76
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$160.34
Value
$148.8
PnL
-$11.55
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
Invested
$92.75
Value
$91.32
PnL
-$1.43
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$76.55
Value
$81.08
PnL
+$4.53
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$81.53
Value
$70.36
PnL
-$11.17
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
Invested
$41.59
Value
$48.63
PnL
+$7.04
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$12.21
Value
$14.25
PnL
+$2.04
Record
53%
62307-54551 (116858)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$8.89
Value
$8.96
PnL
+$0.07
Record
57%
2109-1562 (3671)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.