Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-11-04?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 75¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$26.98

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 75¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$935.61

Total Shares1,177

Combined PnL-$7.62

Yes7 traders

Total Value$239.18

Total Shares956

Combined PnL+$34.6

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 78.9¢	$322.37	$324.92	+$2.56	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 81.9¢	$283.45	$275.07	-$8.38	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$258.44	$274.05	+$15.61	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.3¢	$144.97	$141.68	-$3.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.1¢	$113.47	$132.37	+$18.9
GC GC-P	Noavg 79.3¢	$139.75	$140.15	+$0.41	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
VE Venusian	Noavg 80.8¢	$103.13	$101.52	-$1.61	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$77.49	$75.2	+$16.8	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$53.8	$68.53	+$14.73	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$61.76	$65.55	+$3.8	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 80¢	$55.44	$55.09	-$0.35	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
RN1<$100	Noavg 80¢	$27.6	$27.43	-$0.17	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$20.71	$19.49	-$1.21	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 80¢	$7.68	$7.63	-$0.05	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$6.75	$7.28	+$0.53	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.76	$3.79	-$0.02	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$1.99	$1.96	-$0.03	66% 23991-12174 (36165)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$1.2	$1.18	-$0.02	51% 7653-7369 (15022)

NM-P

Invested

$322.37

Value

$324.92

PnL

+$2.56

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

LightParadox

Invested

$283.45

Value

$275.07

PnL

-$8.38

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$258.44

Value

$274.05

PnL

+$15.61

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

No$144.9778.3¢-$3.29

Yes$113.4720.1¢+$18.9

GC-P

Invested

$139.75

Value

$140.15

PnL

+$0.41

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Venusian

Invested

$103.13

Value

$101.52

PnL

-$1.61

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.49

Value

$75.2

PnL

+$16.8

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.8

Value

$68.53

PnL

+$14.73

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.76

Value

$65.55

PnL

+$3.8

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$55.44

Value

$55.09

PnL

-$0.35

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

RN1<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.43

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.71

Value

$19.49

PnL

-$1.21

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.75

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0.03

Record

66%

23991-12174 (36165)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.