Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.
West Ham United FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5
Resolved Under. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$657.84
-$293.6
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 26.5¢ | $1.5K | $657.84 | -$190.63 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56.1¢ | $369.17 | $657.84 | +$288.67 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 26.5¢ | $962.87 | — | -$479.3 | |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Overavg 8.7¢ | $53.93 | — | -$53.93 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 47.2¢ | $281.45 | — | -$200.85 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.2¢ | $7.67 | — | -$7.67 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 47.2¢ | $34.58 | — | -$31.15 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 78.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
KN KnightDasCapital<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 7317-7098 (14415) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$1,506.31
Value
$657.84
PnL
-$190.63
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.93
Value
—
PnL
-$53.93
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$281.45
Value
—
PnL
-$200.85
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$7.67
Value
—
PnL
-$7.67
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$34.58
Value
—
PnL
-$31.15
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
7317-7098 (14415)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)