Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 38%
$6.4K
-$98.91
50.6¢ → 49.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Underavg 50.8¢ | $3.9K | $3.8K | -$67.07 | 42% 8117-11313 (19430) |
 RN1 | Overavg 50.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$38.14 | 53% 62265-54490 (116755) |
LI Limousin | Overavg 50.2¢ | $768.4 | $772.23 | +$3.83 | 50% 1821-1809 (3630) |
SE sentrioCTR | Underavg 49.8¢ | $431.57 | $428.78 | -$2.79 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
93 0x9311...7c73 | Overavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.3¢ | $55.89 | $59.61 | +$3.72 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $34.53 | $36.03 | +$1.5 | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 50.2¢ | $13.04 | $8.25 | +$0.04 | 54% 10426-8742 (19168) |
Invested
$3,874.76
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$67.07
Record
42%
8117-11313 (19430)
RN1Invested
$1,095.44
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$38.14
Record
53%
62265-54490 (116755)
Invested
$768.4
Value
$772.23
PnL
+$3.83
Record
50%
1821-1809 (3630)
Invested
$431.57
Value
$428.78
PnL
-$2.79
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$55.89
Value
$59.61
PnL
+$3.72
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$34.53
Value
$36.03
PnL
+$1.5
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
Invested
$13.04
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$0.04
Record
54%
10426-8742 (19168)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.