Will Watford FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$7.3K
$219.71
81.8¢ → 85.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DV dv-pm | Noavg 81.8¢ | $7.2K | $7.3K | +$218.83 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $40.5 | $41.5 | +$0.75 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $4.88 | $4.88 | +$0.09 | 51% 38171-37411 (75582) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $4.19 | $4.15 | -$0.04 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $2.66 | $2.55 | +$0.08 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.85 | $0.85 | -$0 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
Invested
$7,157.28
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$218.83
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$41.5
PnL
+$0.75
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
38171-37411 (75582)
Invested
$4.19
Value
$4.15
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
Invested
$2.66
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.