Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 38¢ · $364 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$363.88
$5.39
38.3¢ → 37.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 38.6¢ | $180.27 | $175.3 | +$5.17 | 51% 26669-25270 (51939) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $54.04 | $54.48 | -$0.44 | 64% 10131-5728 (15859) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $53 | $52.3 | -$0.7 | 50% 26223-25873 (52096) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $31.59 | $31.84 | +$0.26 | 48% 62058-66943 (129001) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $18.69 | $18.49 | -$0.2 | 48% 1655-1767 (3422) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $16.19 | $16.85 | +$1.17 | 48% 7430-7967 (15397) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $14.78 | $14.62 | +$0.12 | 49% 1684-1757 (3441) |
Invested
$180.27
Value
$175.3
PnL
+$5.17
Record
51%
26669-25270 (51939)
Invested
$54.04
Value
$54.48
PnL
-$0.44
Record
64%
10131-5728 (15859)
Invested
$53
Value
$52.3
PnL
-$0.7
Record
50%
26223-25873 (52096)
Invested
$31.59
Value
$31.84
PnL
+$0.26
Record
48%
62058-66943 (129001)
Invested
$18.69
Value
$18.49
PnL
-$0.2
Record
48%
1655-1767 (3422)
Invested
$16.19
Value
$16.85
PnL
+$1.17
Record
48%
7430-7967 (15397)
Invested
$14.78
Value
$14.62
PnL
+$0.12
Record
49%
1684-1757 (3441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.