Will Watford FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 71¢ · $251 held · ended Nov 7

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$251.29

Combined PnL

-$1.42

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 70.5¢

-13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$187.22

Total Shares246

Combined PnL-$11.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$64.07

Total Shares273

Combined PnL+$9.65

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Noavg 81¢	$160.68	$151.75	-$8.93	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$39.22	$46.62	+$7.4	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 79¢	$37.61	$35.47	-$2.14	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$13	$14.69	+$1.69	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$2.21	$2.77	+$0.56	51% 27227-25781 (53008)

0xheavy888

Invested

$160.68

Value

$151.75

PnL

-$8.93

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.22

Value

$46.62

PnL

+$7.4

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$37.61

Value

$35.47

PnL

-$2.14

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13

Value

$14.69

PnL

+$1.69

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.77

PnL

+$0.56

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.