Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Watford FC vs. Lincoln City FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 49¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 44%
$5.6K
-$101.26
49.8¢ → 48.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Overavg 49.5¢ | $3.9K | $3.8K | -$83.17 | 51% 1772-1735 (3507) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 52.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$14.92 | 50% 27298-27227 (54525) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Underavg 48¢ | $240 | $255 | +$17.5 | 53% 1074-946 (2020) |
VE VenusianCTR | Overavg 52¢ | $270.92 | $252.69 | -$13.03 | 53% 916-813 (1729) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Overavg 51.5¢ | $106.76 | $100.61 | -$6.15 | 58% 6288-4542 (10830) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 52.2¢ | $52.85 | $51.59 | -$1.26 | 50% 20187-20523 (40710) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $30.07 | $29.76 | -$0.31 | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $25.82 | $25.82 | +$0 | 50% 25247-24961 (50208) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $6.72 | $7.14 | +$0.07 | 56% 942-736 (1678) |
us391CTRInvested
$3,930.84
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$83.17
Record
51%
1772-1735 (3507)
Invested
$1,024.68
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$14.92
Record
50%
27298-27227 (54525)
Invested
$240
Value
$255
PnL
+$17.5
Record
53%
1074-946 (2020)
Invested
$270.92
Value
$252.69
PnL
-$13.03
Record
53%
916-813 (1729)
Invested
$106.76
Value
$100.61
PnL
-$6.15
Record
58%
6288-4542 (10830)
Invested
$52.85
Value
$51.59
PnL
-$1.26
Record
50%
20187-20523 (40710)
Invested
$30.07
Value
$29.76
PnL
-$0.31
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
Invested
$25.82
Value
$25.82
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
25247-24961 (50208)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$7.14
PnL
+$0.07
Record
56%
942-736 (1678)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.