Will Swansea City AFC vs. Wrexham AFC end in a draw?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 72¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$4.1K
$3.9K
23.1¢ → 71.5¢
+210% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
86h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 18.3¢ | $1.0K | $3.3K | +$2.5K | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 42.6¢ | $933.45 | $690.46 | +$281.49 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $25.67 | $44.98 | +$19.31 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $57.31 | $41.31 | +$2 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $8.18 | $24.91 | +$37.09 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $10.67 | $10.53 | -$0.14 | 65% 24597-12971 (37568) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 14.6¢ | $2.7K | $3.57 | +$1.0K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
RN1Invested
$1,013.29
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$933.45
Value
$690.46
PnL
+$281.49
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$25.67
Value
$44.98
PnL
+$19.31
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$57.31
Value
$41.31
PnL
+$2
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$24.91
PnL
+$37.09
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
Invested
$10.67
Value
$10.53
PnL
-$0.14
Record
65%
24597-12971 (37568)
Invested
$2,719.58
Value
$3.57
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.