Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-10-31?
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 58%
$10.3K
$5.75
93¢ → 99.5¢
+7% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 95¢ | $7.5K | $7.4K | -$79 | 93% 855-61 (916) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 83.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$286.86 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
 LonnieHawkinss | Noavg 98.9¢ | $360.43 | $351.47 | -$7.27 | 52% 1888-1746 (3634) |
 RN1 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $231.93 | $243.3 | +$11.36 | 54% 56596-48765 (105361) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $402.34 | $186.13 | -$216.21 | 50% 25095-24835 (49930) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $34.92 | $39.77 | +$4.85 | 57% 1719-1292 (3011) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $25 | $30 | +$5 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $22.99 | $23.56 | +$0.57 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $16.58 | $16.68 | +$0.1 | 49% 19156-19549 (38705) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $10 | $9.8 | -$0.2 | 67% 23332-11736 (35068) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $7.92 | $7.88 | -$0.04 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $2.71 | $2.42 | -$0.29 | 50% 33395-32964 (66359) |
Invested
$7,505
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$79
Record
93%
855-61 (916)
Invested
$1,643.32
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$286.86
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
LonnieHawkinssInvested
$360.43
Value
$351.47
PnL
-$7.27
Record
52%
1888-1746 (3634)
RN1Invested
$231.93
Value
$243.3
PnL
+$11.36
Record
54%
56596-48765 (105361)
Invested
$402.34
Value
$186.13
PnL
-$216.21
Record
50%
25095-24835 (49930)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$34.92
Value
$39.77
PnL
+$4.85
Record
57%
1719-1292 (3011)
Invested
$25
Value
$30
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$22.99
Value
$23.56
PnL
+$0.57
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$16.58
Value
$16.68
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
19156-19549 (38705)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
67%
23332-11736 (35068)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.88
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
Invested
$2.71
Value
$2.42
PnL
-$0.29
Record
50%
33395-32964 (66359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.