Will Southampton FC win on 2026-10-31?

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (31%) · No at 53¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 31%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$105.03

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 53¢

+48% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,850

Combined PnL+$35.47

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,156

Combined PnL+$69.55

No — 31%Yes — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YO yoyoyoyoer	Noavg 36¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$27.45	48% 55-60 (115)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 64¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$71.59	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
fyrskenCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$240	$235	-$5	49% 281-295 (576)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$136.67	$131.09	-$5.58	65% 1708-928 (2636)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 31¢	$86.64	$92.23	+$5.59	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$77.24	$80.7	+$3.46	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$63.28	$73.21	+$9.93	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$31.85	$30.55	-$1.3	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 49.4¢	$24.57	$26.35	+$2.02	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$15.11	$15.35	+$0.23	59% 2556-1783 (4339)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$17	$13.7	-$3.3	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
RN1<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$6.63	$6.59	-$0.04	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$4.23	$4.23	+$0	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.43	-$0.47	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.4	+$0	54% 6286-5324 (11610)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 27¢	$2.7	$3.15	+$0.45	58% 18665-13716 (32381)

yoyoyoyoer

Invested

$1,976.46

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$27.45

Record

48%

55-60 (115)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,309

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$71.59

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

fyrskenCTR

Yes

Invested

$240

Value

$235

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

281-295 (576)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$136.67

Value

$131.09

PnL

-$5.58

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$86.64

Value

$92.23

PnL

+$5.59

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.24

Value

$80.7

PnL

+$3.46

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.28

Value

$73.21

PnL

+$9.93

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.85

Value

$30.55

PnL

-$1.3

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$24.57

Value

$26.35

PnL

+$2.02

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.11

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$0.23

Record

59%

2556-1783 (4339)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17

Value

$13.7

PnL

-$3.3

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

RN1<$100

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$0.04

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.23

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.47

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6286-5324 (11610)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.