Will Lincoln City FC win on 2026-11-07?
2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 83¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 20%
$9.5K
-$33.29
83.6¢ → 82.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 p1252 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $8.4K | $8.3K | -$6.79 | 55% 112-93 (205) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $457.37 | $443.92 | -$13.45 | 49% 299-311 (610) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $283.93 | $275.58 | -$8.35 | 49% 14981-15890 (30871) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 17.1¢ | $257.65 | $248.49 | -$9.17 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $137 | $141.03 | +$4.03 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $10.64 | $10.95 | +$0.31 | 50% 21541-21839 (43380) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $10.63 | $9.42 | -$1.21 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $4.02 | $4.13 | +$0.12 | 51% 6512-6276 (12788) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $2.49 | $3.61 | +$1.12 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $3.4 | $3.5 | +$0.1 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
p1252Invested
$8,356.79
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$6.79
Record
55%
112-93 (205)
Invested
$457.37
Value
$443.92
PnL
-$13.45
Record
49%
299-311 (610)
Invested
$283.93
Value
$275.58
PnL
-$8.35
Record
49%
14981-15890 (30871)
Invested
$257.65
Value
$248.49
PnL
-$9.17
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$137
Value
$141.03
PnL
+$4.03
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$10.64
Value
$10.95
PnL
+$0.31
Record
50%
21541-21839 (43380)
Invested
$10.63
Value
$9.42
PnL
-$1.21
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$4.02
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
6512-6276 (12788)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$3.61
PnL
+$1.12
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.