Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (76%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 25¢ · $748 held · ended Nov 3

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$748.29

Combined PnL

-$42.14

Smart Money Entry

30.7¢ → 24.5¢

-20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$333.04

Total Shares470

Combined PnL+$3.75

Under9 traders

Total Value$415.24

Total Shares1,454

Combined PnL-$45.89

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Overavg 70.5¢	$282	$286	+$4	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 33.3¢	$112.97	$139.06	+$26.09	53% 916-813 (1729)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 31.1¢	$201.86	$138.47	-$63.39	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 28.3¢	$70.08	$63.06	-$7.02	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$42.33	$41.62	+$0.71	54% 906-787 (1693)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 71¢	$35.49	$35.24	-$0.25	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$15.95	$16.22	+$0.55	56% 942-736 (1678)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 59¢	$11.81	$11.81	+$0	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 24.5¢	$8.63	$7.05	-$1.59	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 29.7¢	$7.56	$5.97	-$1.59	52% 830-771 (1601)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$2.7	$2.95	+$0.3	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$0.82	$0.83	+$0.04	50% 35607-35082 (70689)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$282

Value

$286

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$112.97

Value

$139.06

PnL

+$26.09

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$201.86

Value

$138.47

PnL

-$63.39

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.08

Value

$63.06

PnL

-$7.02

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.33

Value

$41.62

PnL

+$0.71

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$35.49

Value

$35.24

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.95

Value

$16.22

PnL

+$0.55

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$11.81

Value

$11.81

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.63

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$1.59

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.56

Value

$5.97

PnL

-$1.59

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.