Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 37¢ · $972 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$972.4
$2.02
38.2¢ → 36.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $295.17 | $299.16 | +$3.99 | 64% 10173-5762 (15935) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $295.12 | $299.11 | +$3.99 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Noavg 42.2¢ | $147.63 | $136.4 | -$5.25 | 53% 2689-2368 (5057) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 39.8¢ | $100.72 | $98.6 | -$2.12 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $57.29 | $57.29 | +$0 | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $51.33 | $53.51 | +$1.31 | 48% 62365-67229 (129594) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $15.83 | $15.83 | +$0 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $12.4 | $12.5 | +$0.1 | 54% 10426-8742 (19168) |
Invested
$295.17
Value
$299.16
PnL
+$3.99
Record
64%
10173-5762 (15935)
Invested
$295.12
Value
$299.11
PnL
+$3.99
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$147.63
Value
$136.4
PnL
-$5.25
Record
53%
2689-2368 (5057)
Invested
$100.72
Value
$98.6
PnL
-$2.12
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$57.29
Value
$57.29
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
Invested
$51.33
Value
$53.51
PnL
+$1.31
Record
48%
62365-67229 (129594)
Invested
$15.83
Value
$15.83
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
Invested
$12.4
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
10426-8742 (19168)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.