Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-11-03?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 76¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 3

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 75.5¢

-20% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,139

Combined PnL-$957.23

Yes5 traders

Total Value$457.16

Total Shares2,671

Combined PnL-$217.42

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.1¢	$3.0K	$2.3K	-$669.79	50% 35778-35246 (71024)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.9¢	$726.84	$560.78	-$166.06	52% 992-931 (1923)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72.6¢	$326.44	$375.87	+$16.13	51% 23549-22308 (45857)
LI Limousin	Noavg 98.1¢	$485.59	$373.73	-$111.86	54% 1090-911 (2001)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$352	$359.33	+$7.33	50% 27453-27352 (54805)
BA BayupatiARB<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$178.73	$169.94	-$11.47	49% 251-259 (510)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$100.56	$91.25	-$13.04
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$78.17	$78.69	+$1.56
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$106	$131.98	+$25.97	53% 59235-51541 (110776)
└ No leg	Noavg 97.1¢	$85.6	$66.55	-$19.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.6¢	$20.41	$65.43	+$45.02
CA Cannae	Noavg 74.4¢	$108.12	$109.72	+$1.61	53% 16428-14604 (31032)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 99¢	$95.09	$72.48	-$22.61	52% 1065-966 (2031)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$97.91	$55.96	+$2.8	58% 44814-32606 (77420)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$40	$39.27	-$0.73	47% 10701-12047 (22748)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.2¢	$70.86	$36.75	-$34.11	48% 6905-7554 (14459)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$28.94	$25.67	-$3.27	53% 1052-943 (1995)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 76¢	$24.17	$24.01	-$0.16	49% 14175-14774 (28949)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.9¢	$5.42	$5.12	-$0.3	66% 23882-12090 (35972)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$2.1	$1.62	-$0.49	50% 25302-25019 (50321)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$804.76	—	-$193.14	49% 280-296 (576)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,986.54

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$669.79

Record

50%

35778-35246 (71024)

MadridTime

Invested

$726.84

Value

$560.78

PnL

-$166.06

Record

52%

992-931 (1923)

Flaznorp

Invested

$326.44

Value

$375.87

PnL

+$16.13

Record

51%

23549-22308 (45857)

Limousin

Invested

$485.59

Value

$373.73

PnL

-$111.86

Record

54%

1090-911 (2001)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$352

Value

$359.33

PnL

+$7.33

Record

50%

27453-27352 (54805)

BayupatiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$178.73

Value

$169.94

PnL

-$11.47

Record

49%

251-259 (510)

Both legs:

Yes$100.5627¢-$13.04

No$78.1775¢+$1.56

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$106

Value

$131.98

PnL

+$25.97

Record

53%

59235-51541 (110776)

Both legs:

No$85.697.1¢-$19.05

Yes$20.417.6¢+$45.02

Cannae

Invested

$108.12

Value

$109.72

PnL

+$1.61

Record

53%

16428-14604 (31032)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$95.09

Value

$72.48

PnL

-$22.61

Record

52%

1065-966 (2031)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.91

Value

$55.96

PnL

+$2.8

Record

58%

44814-32606 (77420)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$39.27

PnL

-$0.73

Record

47%

10701-12047 (22748)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.86

Value

$36.75

PnL

-$34.11

Record

48%

6905-7554 (14459)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$28.94

Value

$25.67

PnL

-$3.27

Record

53%

1052-943 (1995)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$24.17

Value

$24.01

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

14175-14774 (28949)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.3

Record

66%

23882-12090 (35972)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

25302-25019 (50321)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$804.76

Value

—

PnL

-$193.14

Record

49%

280-296 (576)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.