Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 53¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
12
Yes 33%
$2.4K
-$63.31
49.3¢ → 52.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$45.27 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 52.9¢ | $183 | $171.21 | -$11.79 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Noavg 51¢ | $140.84 | $140.84 | +$0 | 50% 1412-1412 (2824) |
LI LightParadox | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $137.04 | $133.57 | -$3.47 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $93.42 | $94.34 | +$0.92 | 64% 10179-5769 (15948) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $56.24 | $51 | -$0.5 | 47% 7500-8312 (15812) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.7¢ | $42.63 | $39.2 | -$3.43 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $10.07 | $10.13 | +$0.06 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $20.5 | $7.8 | -$0.17 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $5.83 | $5.89 | +$0.06 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $5.15 | +$0.25 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $1.17 | $1.13 | +$0.03 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
Invested
$1,782.72
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$45.27
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$183
Value
$171.21
PnL
-$11.79
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$140.84
Value
$140.84
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1412-1412 (2824)
Invested
$137.04
Value
$133.57
PnL
-$3.47
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$93.42
Value
$94.34
PnL
+$0.92
Record
64%
10179-5769 (15948)
Invested
$56.24
Value
$51
PnL
-$0.5
Record
47%
7500-8312 (15812)
Invested
$42.63
Value
$39.2
PnL
-$3.43
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$10.07
Value
$10.13
PnL
+$0.06
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$20.5
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$0.17
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$5.83
Value
$5.89
PnL
+$0.06
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.