Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-11-04?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$2.2K
-$35.18
51.6¢ → 50.5¢
-2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52.3¢ | $760.55 | $741.85 | -$18.7 | 51% 24004-22756 (46760) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 50.8¢ | $603.06 | $599.42 | -$3.65 | 46% 1299-1520 (2819) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 50.8¢ | $584.33 | $580.78 | -$3.54 | 47% 1324-1519 (2843) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 54.2¢ | $115 | $108.12 | -$6.88 | 50% 20647-20936 (41583) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $34.67 | $103.53 | -$2.02 | 48% 58721-62631 (121352) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $21.84 | $21.55 | -$0.29 | 53% 16492-14656 (31148) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 50.5¢ | $14.9 | $15.05 | +$0.15 | 58% 45382-32888 (78270) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $5.2 | $5.05 | -$0.15 | 50% 25470-25164 (50634) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.14 | $5.04 | -$0.1 | 51% 7644-7356 (15000) |
Invested
$760.55
Value
$741.85
PnL
-$18.7
Record
51%
24004-22756 (46760)
Invested
$603.06
Value
$599.42
PnL
-$3.65
Record
46%
1299-1520 (2819)
Invested
$584.33
Value
$580.78
PnL
-$3.54
Record
47%
1324-1519 (2843)
Invested
$115
Value
$108.12
PnL
-$6.88
Record
50%
20647-20936 (41583)
Invested
$34.67
Value
$103.53
PnL
-$2.02
Record
48%
58721-62631 (121352)
Invested
$21.84
Value
$21.55
PnL
-$0.29
Record
53%
16492-14656 (31148)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.9
Value
$15.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
45382-32888 (78270)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
25470-25164 (50634)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
7644-7356 (15000)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.