Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cardiff City FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 48¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$157.39

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 47.5¢

-14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,347

Combined PnL+$143.89

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,880

Combined PnL-$301.28

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 55¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$149.69	49% 299-312 (611)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 45¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$301.78	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 39.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$61.04	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.7¢	$584.99	$633.31	+$48.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.1¢	$511	$501.17	+$12.72
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 58¢	$174	$166.45	-$3	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 58¢	$105.19	$103.37	-$1.81	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 60.2¢	$62.13	$60.47	-$1.66	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$33.22	$33.84	+$0.62	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$26.1	$25.65	+$0.68	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 44.2¢	$9.02	$8.77	-$0.25	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 41¢	$3.43	$3.56	+$0.13	49% 1843-1935 (3778)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$2,058.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$149.69

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$1,697.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$301.78

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,095.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$61.04

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

Over$584.9939.7¢+$48.32

Under$51158.1¢+$12.72

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$174

Value

$166.45

PnL

-$3

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$105.19

Value

$103.37

PnL

-$1.81

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.13

Value

$60.47

PnL

-$1.66

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$33.22

Value

$33.84

PnL

+$0.62

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.1

Value

$25.65

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$9.02

Value

$8.77

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.56

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.