Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Bristol City FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 27¢ · $405 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$405.01
-$23.78
29.1¢ → 26.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $116.03 | $104.74 | -$11.3 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $95.74 | $87.46 | -$8.28 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $52.28 | $53.36 | +$1.08 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $47.96 | $43.3 | -$4.66 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $42.6 | $42.05 | -$0.55 | 54% 10448-8768 (19216) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $39.6 | $40.43 | +$0.82 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $20.11 | $19.61 | -$0.5 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.88 | $8.05 | +$0.16 | 64% 10178-5767 (15945) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $6.6 | $6.03 | -$0.57 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
Invested
$116.03
Value
$104.74
PnL
-$11.3
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
Invested
$95.74
Value
$87.46
PnL
-$8.28
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$52.28
Value
$53.36
PnL
+$1.08
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$47.96
Value
$43.3
PnL
-$4.66
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$42.6
Value
$42.05
PnL
-$0.55
Record
54%
10448-8768 (19216)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$40.43
PnL
+$0.82
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
Invested
$20.11
Value
$19.61
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$7.88
Value
$8.05
PnL
+$0.16
Record
64%
10178-5767 (15945)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.03
PnL
-$0.57
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.