Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 68¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$28.14

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 67.5¢

+38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,055

Combined PnL+$28.65

Yes6 traders

Total Value$523.4

Total Shares988

Combined PnL-$0.52

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-38 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 49¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.06	47% 206-230 (436)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$578.21	$566.01	-$12.2	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$423.45	$394.39	-$29.06
└ No leg	Noavg 47.3¢	$154.75	$171.62	+$16.86
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$506.12	$479.38	-$26.74	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$419.28	$382.29	-$37
└ No leg	Noavg 47.8¢	$86.84	$97.1	+$10.25
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 53.2¢	$467.4	$452.96	-$4.87	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.2¢	$299.12	$292.36	+$2.81
└ No leg	Noavg 49.2¢	$168.28	$160.6	-$7.68
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 51¢	$273.99	$276.68	+$2.69	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 48¢	$189.36	$199.22	+$9.86	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
SE sentrioCTR	Yesavg 52¢	$146.95	$146.62	-$0.33	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$51.5	$49.5	-$2	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$38.6	$37.88	-$0.73	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b<$100	Noavg 48¢	$23.3	$24.03	+$0.73	53% 232-209 (441)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$11.05	$10.72	-$0.32	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$11.36	$2	+$0.18	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$1,769.95

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.06

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

GC-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$578.21

Value

$566.01

PnL

-$12.2

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Both legs:

Yes$423.4551¢-$29.06

No$154.7547.3¢+$16.86

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$506.12

Value

$479.38

PnL

-$26.74

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Invested

$467.4

Value

$452.96

PnL

-$4.87

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

Yes$299.1253.2¢+$2.81

No$168.2849.2¢-$7.68

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$273.99

Value

$276.68

PnL

+$2.69

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

MadridTime

Invested

$189.36

Value

$199.22

PnL

+$9.86

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

sentrioCTR

Yes

Invested

$146.95

Value

$146.62

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.5

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.6

Value

$37.88

PnL

-$0.73

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b<$100

Invested

$23.3

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$0.73

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.05

Value

$10.72

PnL

-$0.32

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.36

Value

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-38 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.