Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 16 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-11-03?

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (84%) · No at 12¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 84%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$890.72

Smart Money Entry

38.3¢ → 11.5¢

-70% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,842

Combined PnL-$888.91

Yes3 traders

Total Value$126.8

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$1.81

No — 84%Yes — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 35.6¢	$1.1K	$406.98	-$714.27	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 49¢	$297.92	$310.08	+$3.04	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 46¢	$384.8	$238.35	-$146.45	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 51.8¢	$162.96	$160.29	-$1.1	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 49.7¢	$143.62	$131.56	-$12.06	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$83.94	$79.79	-$4.15	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$65.71	$66.57	-$0.77	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$40.8	$42.9	+$2.1	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 11.5¢	$23.67	$30.13	-$0.95	54% 906-787 (1693)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$27.7	$24.19	-$3.51	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
us391CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$20.5	$20.71	+$0.21	51% 1772-1735 (3507)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 17.3¢	$33.39	$20.27	-$13.13	56% 942-736 (1678)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$11.76	$12.24	+$0.12	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$10.54	$10.82	+$0.28	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$9.8	$9.9	+$0.1	54% 6742-5667 (12409)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$7	$6.73	-$0.27	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$14.7	$4.11	+$0.24	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 12.5¢	$1.38	$1.27	-$0.11	52% 830-771 (1601)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$1.06	$1.02	-$0.03	51% 7341-7085 (14426)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,121.24

Value

$406.98

PnL

-$714.27

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$297.92

Value

$310.08

PnL

+$3.04

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$384.8

Value

$238.35

PnL

-$146.45

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$162.96

Value

$160.29

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$143.62

Value

$131.56

PnL

-$12.06

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.94

Value

$79.79

PnL

-$4.15

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$65.71

Value

$66.57

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.8

Value

$42.9

PnL

+$2.1

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$23.67

Value

$30.13

PnL

-$0.95

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$27.7

Value

$24.19

PnL

-$3.51

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

us391CTR<$100

Invested

$20.5

Value

$20.71

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

1772-1735 (3507)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$33.39

Value

$20.27

PnL

-$13.13

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$11.76

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$10.54

Value

$10.82

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

6742-5667 (12409)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$6.73

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.7

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 19 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.