Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 41¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$51.48

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 40.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares10,353

Combined PnL-$50.66

Yes4 traders

Total Value$208.28

Total Shares347

Combined PnL-$0.82

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 41¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$47.85	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 40.8¢	$247.12	$245.58	-$1.54	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$75.53	$74.05	+$0.62	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
NM NM-P<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$65.74	$65.74	-$0.55	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$46.08	$46.66	-$0.58	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$41	$41	-$0.34	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$28.04	$27.49	-$0.55	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$20.5	$20.25	-$0.75	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$4.27	$4.32	+$0.05	51% 2057-1996 (4053)

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$3,924.1

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$47.85

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$247.12

Value

$245.58

PnL

-$1.54

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.53

Value

$74.05

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

NM-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.74

Value

$65.74

PnL

-$0.55

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$46.08

Value

$46.66

PnL

-$0.58

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

GC-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$41

Value

$41

PnL

-$0.34

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.04

Value

$27.49

PnL

-$0.55

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$20.5

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

2057-1996 (4053)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.