Will Grimsby Town FC win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$283.31

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,618

Combined PnL+$607.82

No5 traders

Total Value$39.12

Total Shares1,846

Combined PnL-$891.13

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 79.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$272.69	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 56.4¢	$511.73	$742.65	+$230.92	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 48¢	$216.14	$286.47	+$90.43	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$37.2	$39.98	+$2.78	76% 235-76 (311)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$24	$35	+$11	30% 335-776 (1111)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$55.17	$28.61	-$26.56	37% 960-1662 (2622)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$11.91	$6.67	-$5.24	37% 353-603 (956)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$2.8	$3	+$0.2	47% 895-994 (1889)
ME metski29CTR	Noavg 51.5¢	$859.29	$0.83	-$858.46	11% 7-56 (63)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$1.08	$0.01	-$1.07	48% 2074-2236 (4310)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,099.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$272.69

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$511.73

Value

$742.65

PnL

+$230.92

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$216.14

Value

$286.47

PnL

+$90.43

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.2

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$2.78

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$35

PnL

+$11

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$55.17

Value

$28.61

PnL

-$26.56

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$11.91

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$5.24

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

metski29CTR

Invested

$859.29

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$858.46

Record

11%

7-56 (63)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.07

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.