Will Shrewsbury Town FC win on 2026-11-14?
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 30%
$1.3K
$5.34
64.5¢ → 65.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 65¢ | $623.19 | $627.98 | +$4.79 | 9% 30-286 (316) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 65.9¢ | $138.43 | $137.68 | -$0.75 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 61¢ | $132.13 | $136.46 | +$4.33 | 37% 966-1631 (2597) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 35¢ | $118 | $116.31 | -$1.69 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
GC GC-PCTR | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $116.15 | $116.12 | -$0.03 | 37% 353-603 (956) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.7¢ | $87.67 | $87.25 | -$0.42 | 59% 3763-2587 (6350) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $70 | $69 | -$1 | 53% 1343-1170 (2513) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.8¢ | $20.5 | $20.6 | +$0.1 | 49% 3811-3974 (7785) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $3.7 | $3.7 | +$0 | 42% 991-1360 (2351) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $3.48 | $3.48 | +$0 | 30% 334-774 (1108) |
rayvanmechelenInvested
$623.19
Value
$627.98
PnL
+$4.79
Record
9%
30-286 (316)
Invested
$138.43
Value
$137.68
PnL
-$0.75
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
Invested
$132.13
Value
$136.46
PnL
+$4.33
Record
37%
966-1631 (2597)
Invested
$118
Value
$116.31
PnL
-$1.69
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$116.15
Value
$116.12
PnL
-$0.03
Record
37%
353-603 (956)
Invested
$87.67
Value
$87.25
PnL
-$0.42
Record
59%
3763-2587 (6350)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$70
Value
$69
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
1343-1170 (2513)
Invested
$20.5
Value
$20.6
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
3811-3974 (7785)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
991-1360 (2351)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$3.48
Value
$3.48
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
334-774 (1108)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.