Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Oldham Athletic AFC win on 2026-11-14?
Resolved No. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$278.34
-$20.62
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $172.55 | $174.47 | +$1.92 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.7¢ | $118.13 | $174.47 | +$56.34 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $54.42 | — | -$54.42 | |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $46.11 | $63.2 | +$17.09 | 37% 367-618 (985) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $44.65 | — | -$44.65 | 59% 3775-2600 (6375) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $20 | +$4.8 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $7.15 | $10.67 | +$3.52 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $10 | +$3.5 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $3.52 | — | -$3.52 | 31% 355-790 (1145) |
IS IsraelDJJBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $50 | — | -$1.35 | 7% 2-25 (27) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | — | +$0 | 69% 133-60 (193) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 54% 1417-1228 (2645) |
Invested
$172.55
Value
$174.47
PnL
+$1.92
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.11
Value
$63.2
PnL
+$17.09
Record
37%
367-618 (985)
Invested
$44.65
Value
—
PnL
-$44.65
Record
59%
3775-2600 (6375)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.8
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
Invested
$7.15
Value
$10.67
PnL
+$3.52
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.5
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$3.52
Value
—
PnL
-$3.52
Record
31%
355-790 (1145)
Invested
$50
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
7%
2-25 (27)
Invested
$200
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
133-60 (193)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1417-1228 (2645)