Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Salford City FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 40¢ · $506 held · ends Nov 14

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$505.95

Combined PnL

-$9.45

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 39.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$393.57

Total Shares989

Combined PnL-$9.21

Yes4 traders

Total Value$112.36

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$0.25

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 40¢	$306.06	$298.67	-$7.4	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$57.15	$55.77	-$1.38	56% 307-245 (552)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$40.8	$41.14	+$0.34	6% 17-277 (294)
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$28.06	$27.83	-$0.23	2% 9-382 (391)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$22.43	$22.43	-$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)
NM NM-P<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$21.87	$21.7	-$0.18	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$21.87	$21.7	-$0.18	33% 251-499 (750)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$22.13	$16.7	-$0.43	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$306.06

Value

$298.67

PnL

-$7.4

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$57.15

Value

$55.77

PnL

-$1.38

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.8

Value

$41.14

PnL

+$0.34

Record

17-277 (294)

rabbitfoot1<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.06

Value

$27.83

PnL

-$0.23

Record

9-382 (391)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$22.43

Value

$22.43

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

NM-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.87

Value

$21.7

PnL

-$0.18

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.87

Value

$21.7

PnL

-$0.18

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$22.13

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$0.43

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.