Will Northampton Town FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 88¢ · $372 held · ends Nov 14

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$372.07

Combined PnL

-$0.49

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 87.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$313.64

Total Shares362

Combined PnL+$1.6

Yes5 traders

Total Value$58.43

Total Shares431

Combined PnL-$2.09

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 86¢	$162.43	$162.43	+$0	37% 956-1658 (2614)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 86¢	$79.51	$80.93	+$1.42	37% 351-603 (954)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 86¢	$54.89	$54.89	+$0	59% 3761-2587 (6348)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$48.78	$47.04	-$1.74	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 85¢	$15.22	$15.4	+$0.18	36% 926-1642 (2568)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$4.88	$4.88	-$0	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$4.76	$4.16	-$0.6	46% 2583-3072 (5655)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$9.6	$1.25	+$0.25	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.1	$1.1	-$0	42% 989-1357 (2346)

LightParadox

Invested

$162.43

Value

$162.43

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$79.51

Value

$80.93

PnL

+$1.42

Record

37%

351-603 (954)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$54.89

Value

$54.89

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3761-2587 (6348)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.78

Value

$47.04

PnL

-$1.74

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$15.22

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$0.18

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$0.6

Record

46%

2583-3072 (5655)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.6

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.