Will York City FC win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 64%
$2.6K
-$171.83
73.1¢ → 100¢
+37% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 78.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.4K | -$431.95 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 13.6¢ | $194.8 | $692.22 | +$497.42 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $435.35 | $217.68 | -$217.68 | 9% 30-286 (316) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 51.9¢ | $134.76 | $104.92 | -$7.51 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $72.01 | $66.47 | -$5.54 | 37% 353-603 (956) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $71.6 | $66.1 | -$5.51 | 59% 3763-2587 (6350) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $22.7 | $19.97 | -$2.73 | 42% 995-1363 (2358) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $15.38 | $15.66 | +$0.27 | 30% 335-776 (1111) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $10.78 | $5.65 | +$1.05 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $1.04 | $1.65 | +$0.61 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $1.3 | $1.04 | -$0.26 | 37% 960-1662 (2622) |
Invested
$1,831.54
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$431.95
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$194.8
Value
$692.22
PnL
+$497.42
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$435.35
Value
$217.68
PnL
-$217.68
Record
9%
30-286 (316)
VeryLucky888Invested
$134.76
Value
$104.92
PnL
-$7.51
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$72.01
Value
$66.47
PnL
-$5.54
Record
37%
353-603 (956)
Invested
$71.6
Value
$66.1
PnL
-$5.51
Record
59%
3763-2587 (6350)
Invested
$22.7
Value
$19.97
PnL
-$2.73
Record
42%
995-1363 (2358)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$15.38
Value
$15.66
PnL
+$0.27
Record
30%
335-776 (1111)
Invested
$10.78
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$1.05
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.61
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.04
PnL
-$0.26
Record
37%
960-1662 (2622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.