Will Rochdale AFC win on 2026-11-14?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $714 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$713.69
-$66.27
78.6¢ → 99.5¢
+27% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 76.1¢ | $277.86 | $290.31 | +$12.45 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 77¢ | $145.93 | $136.45 | -$9.48 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 82.1¢ | $244.26 | $123.82 | -$64.26 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $74.55 | $69.71 | -$4.84 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $56.18 | $56.24 | +$0.06 | 47% 895-994 (1889) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $20.64 | $19.3 | -$1.34 | 37% 970-1635 (2605) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $6.19 | $7.29 | +$1.1 | 30% 335-776 (1111) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $3.84 | $3.84 | +$0 | 42% 995-1363 (2358) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $8.35 | $3.6 | +$0.25 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.35 | $3.13 | -$0.22 | 35% 440-800 (1240) |
Invested
$277.86
Value
$290.31
PnL
+$12.45
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Invested
$145.93
Value
$136.45
PnL
-$9.48
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
Invested
$244.26
Value
$123.82
PnL
-$64.26
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$74.55
Value
$69.71
PnL
-$4.84
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
Invested
$56.18
Value
$56.24
PnL
+$0.06
Record
47%
895-994 (1889)
Invested
$20.64
Value
$19.3
PnL
-$1.34
Record
37%
970-1635 (2605)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$6.19
Value
$7.29
PnL
+$1.1
Record
30%
335-776 (1111)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$3.84
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
995-1363 (2358)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$0.22
Record
35%
440-800 (1240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.