Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,386

Combined PnL-$8.49

No5 traders

Total Value$518.4

Total Shares4,897

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 90.7¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$28.18	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
Secondhandvinyl	Yesavg 96.9¢	$753.62	$766.41	+$12.79	76% 235-76 (311)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 53¢	$1.9K	$387.24	$-1.5K	35% 440-800 (1240)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 92.5¢	$143.09	$149.36	+$6.27	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 3.8¢	$31.21	$51.89	+$20.67	47% 895-994 (1889)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 53¢	$222.54	$44.41	-$169.25	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 71.7¢	$36.26	$38.2	+$1.94	30% 335-776 (1111)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$85.87	$29.96	-$55.91	56% 463-370 (833)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$7.96	$6.64	-$1.32	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$4.9	$4.9	-$0	42% 995-1363 (2358)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$4,114.8

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$28.18

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Secondhandvinyl

Yes

Invested

$753.62

Value

$766.41

PnL

+$12.79

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,864.33

Value

$387.24

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$143.09

Value

$149.36

PnL

+$6.27

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$31.21

Value

$51.89

PnL

+$20.67

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$222.54

Value

$44.41

PnL

-$169.25

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.26

Value

$38.2

PnL

+$1.94

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$85.87

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$55.91

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.96

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$1.32

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.