Will Northampton Town FC win on 2026-10-03?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 60¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$2.7K
-$367.35
68¢ → 60¢
-12% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.1¢ | $1.1K | $666 | -$412.31 | 49% 14132-14699 (28831) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 58.1¢ | $621.42 | $642.24 | +$20.82 | 53% 921-802 (1723) |
MO mouzsynapse | Noavg 58¢ | $455.8 | $471.52 | +$15.72 | 40% 1123-1702 (2825) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 58.3¢ | $389.66 | $442.82 | -$0.54 | 51% 23440-22208 (45648) |
FE ferdinand2 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $322.37 | $331.32 | +$8.95 | 48% 6175-6580 (12755) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $58.87 | $57.87 | -$1 | 53% 928-828 (1756) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 58.6¢ | $28.12 | $28.8 | +$0.68 | 51% 7362-7108 (14470) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $33.2 | $13.01 | +$0.61 | 58% 44668-32527 (77195) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 61.2¢ | $11.35 | $11.13 | -$0.22 | 52% 847-783 (1630) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $6 | -$0.05 | 56% 959-749 (1708) |
Invested
$1,078.31
Value
$666
PnL
-$412.31
Record
49%
14132-14699 (28831)
Invested
$621.42
Value
$642.24
PnL
+$20.82
Record
53%
921-802 (1723)
Invested
$455.8
Value
$471.52
PnL
+$15.72
Record
40%
1123-1702 (2825)
Invested
$389.66
Value
$442.82
PnL
-$0.54
Record
51%
23440-22208 (45648)
Invested
$322.37
Value
$331.32
PnL
+$8.95
Record
48%
6175-6580 (12755)
Invested
$58.87
Value
$57.87
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
928-828 (1756)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$28.12
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
7362-7108 (14470)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$33.2
Value
$13.01
PnL
+$0.61
Record
58%
44668-32527 (77195)
Invested
$11.35
Value
$11.13
PnL
-$0.22
Record
52%
847-783 (1630)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.05
Record
56%
959-749 (1708)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.