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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Fleetwood Town FC vs. Tranmere Rovers FC: O/U 0.5

Resolved Over. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$607.49

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,737

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over2 traders

Total Value$402.06

Total Shares402

Combined PnL+$107.1

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.7¢	$642.23	—	-$642.23	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 35.9¢	$556.11	—	-$556.11	36% 979-1704 (2683)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 30¢	$311.26	$205.43	-$105.83	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
└ Under leg	Underavg 30¢	$229.17	—	-$229.17
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$82.09	$205.43	+$123.34
SM smithagent	Overavg 72.4¢	$164.55	$227.16	+$62.61	45% 679-837 (1516)
poshposh	Overavg 74.6¢	$130.42	$174.9	+$44.48	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$57.44	—	-$57.44	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 33.2¢	$68.17	—	-$68.17	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64	47% 936-1037 (1973)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$200	—	+$0	69% 133-60 (193)

Invested

$642.23

Value

—

PnL

-$642.23

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Invested

$556.11

Value

—

PnL

-$556.11

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$311.26

Value

$205.43

PnL

-$105.83

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Both legs:

Under$229.1730¢-$229.17

Over$82.0940¢+$123.34

Invested

$164.55

Value

$227.16

PnL

+$62.61

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

Invested

$130.42

Value

$174.9

PnL

+$44.48

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$57.44

Value

—

PnL

-$57.44

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$68.17

Value

—

PnL

-$68.17

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

—

PnL

-$2.64

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Invested

$200

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

133-60 (193)

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc568f036...0fcdb8

Slug

el2-fle-tra-2026-11-14-total-0pt5

Traders in this Market

Flaznorp

Under — $0

Limousin

Under — $0

GoalLineGhost

Arbitrage — excluded

smithagent

Over — $227.16

poshposh

Over — $174.9

MadridTime

Under — $0

LightParadox

Under — $0

SnakeBall

Under — $0

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Under — $0

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