Exeter City FC vs. Cheltenham Town FC: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 65¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
$576.26
44.3¢ → 65¢
+47% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 60.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$89.3 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43.5¢ | $989.4 | $1.6K | +$590.09 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60.1¢ | $1.0K | $516.21 | -$500.78 | |
 12monkeys | Overavg 38¢ | $629.34 | $1.1K | +$455.44 | 41% 18-26 (44) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 51.3¢ | $950.88 | $867 | +$75.41 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 29¢ | $133.86 | $159.36 | +$25.5 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $85 | $85 | +$0 | 53% 7046-6183 (13229) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $25.43 | $43.83 | +$18.4 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 33.9¢ | $17.13 | $17.43 | +$0.3 | 36% 945-1666 (2611) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $5.8 | $7 | +$1.2 | 37% 966-1630 (2596) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $0.46 | $0.46 | +$0.01 | 48% 2066-2225 (4291) |
Invested
$2,006.39
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$89.3
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Both legs:
12monkeysInvested
$629.34
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$455.44
Record
41%
18-26 (44)
Invested
$950.88
Value
$867
PnL
+$75.41
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$133.86
Value
$159.36
PnL
+$25.5
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
Invested
$85
Value
$85
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7046-6183 (13229)
Invested
$25.43
Value
$43.83
PnL
+$18.4
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
Invested
$17.13
Value
$17.43
PnL
+$0.3
Record
36%
945-1666 (2611)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$7
PnL
+$1.2
Record
37%
966-1630 (2596)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$0.46
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
2066-2225 (4291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.