Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exeter City FC vs. Cheltenham Town FC: O/U 0.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $594 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$594.31
-$68.42
18.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 76.6¢ | $434.11 | $482.41 | +$48.3 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 76.6¢ | $323.3 | $310.13 | -$13.17 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 17¢ | $110.81 | $172.28 | +$61.47 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 12.3¢ | $45.54 | $84.45 | +$38.91 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $28.24 | $15.21 | -$13.03 | 47% 895-992 (1887) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 28.3¢ | $6.24 | $6.5 | +$0.26 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $2.72 | $2.64 | -$0.08 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $1.82 | $1.59 | -$0.23 | 48% 2066-2225 (4291) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 11¢ | $2.1 | $1.34 | -$0.76 | 35% 438-797 (1235) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $93.66 | $0.17 | -$93.48 | 37% 966-1630 (2596) |
Invested
$434.11
Value
$482.41
PnL
+$48.3
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.54
Value
$84.45
PnL
+$38.91
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$28.24
Value
$15.21
PnL
-$13.03
Record
47%
895-992 (1887)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$0.26
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
Invested
$2.72
Value
$2.64
PnL
-$0.08
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.59
PnL
-$0.23
Record
48%
2066-2225 (4291)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$1.34
PnL
-$0.76
Record
35%
438-797 (1235)
Invested
$93.66
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$93.48
Record
37%
966-1630 (2596)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.