Will Exeter City FC win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 52¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$5.47
49.6¢ → 51.5¢
+4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 48.4¢ | $534.19 | $552.08 | +$17.89 | 49% 3801-3964 (7765) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.3¢ | $266.83 | $311.97 | +$45.14 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.4¢ | $267.36 | $240.1 | -$27.25 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 50¢ | $194.51 | $187.02 | +$2.13 | 53% 1337-1165 (2502) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 49.8¢ | $118.77 | $120.52 | +$1.75 | 37% 351-603 (954) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $40.25 | $41.09 | +$0.84 | 59% 3761-2587 (6348) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $36.01 | $36.37 | +$0.37 | 53% 2076-1824 (3900) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 48.4¢ | $32.92 | $33.3 | +$0.38 | 42% 989-1357 (2346) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $29.41 | $29.41 | +$0 | 37% 965-1630 (2595) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $4.78 | $4.78 | +$0 | 36% 926-1642 (2568) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0 | 48% 2063-2220 (4283) |
Invested
$534.19
Value
$552.08
PnL
+$17.89
Record
49%
3801-3964 (7765)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$194.51
Value
$187.02
PnL
+$2.13
Record
53%
1337-1165 (2502)
Invested
$118.77
Value
$120.52
PnL
+$1.75
Record
37%
351-603 (954)
Invested
$40.25
Value
$41.09
PnL
+$0.84
Record
59%
3761-2587 (6348)
Invested
$36.01
Value
$36.37
PnL
+$0.37
Record
53%
2076-1824 (3900)
Invested
$32.92
Value
$33.3
PnL
+$0.38
Record
42%
989-1357 (2346)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$29.41
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
965-1630 (2595)
Invested
$4.78
Value
$4.78
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
926-1642 (2568)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2063-2220 (4283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.