Will Exeter City FC vs. Cheltenham Town FC end in a draw?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $607 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$607.41
-$5.82
70.7¢ → 82¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 68.8¢ | $304.49 | $302.32 | -$2.17 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $85.69 | $85.69 | +$0 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $81.56 | $79.33 | -$2.23 | 59% 3763-2587 (6350) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $73.76 | $71.74 | -$2.02 | 37% 353-603 (956) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $36 | $36.5 | +$0.5 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $14.7 | $14.2 | -$0.5 | 53% 1340-1169 (2509) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $8.4 | $9.05 | +$0.65 | 37% 966-1630 (2596) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $4.08 | $4.08 | -$0 | 35% 438-797 (1235) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $2.9 | $2.98 | +$0.09 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.53 | -$0.13 | 48% 2066-2225 (4291) |
Invested
$304.49
Value
$302.32
PnL
-$2.17
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$85.69
Value
$85.69
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$81.56
Value
$79.33
PnL
-$2.23
Record
59%
3763-2587 (6350)
Invested
$73.76
Value
$71.74
PnL
-$2.02
Record
37%
353-603 (956)
Invested
$36
Value
$36.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.7
Value
$14.2
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
1340-1169 (2509)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$0.65
Record
37%
966-1630 (2596)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$4.08
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
438-797 (1235)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.98
PnL
+$0.09
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$0.13
Record
48%
2066-2225 (4291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.