Will Colchester United FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$53.84

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 99.3¢

+46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,787

Combined PnL+$211.44

No6 traders

Total Value$502.66

Total Shares2,233

Combined PnL-$157.6

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 78.6¢	$860.14	$1.1K	+$225.91	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 50¢	$326	$312.96	-$13.04	9% 30-286 (316)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 49.5¢	$540.43	$280.56	-$259.87	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 2.8¢	$26.83	$136.01	+$109.18	35% 440-800 (1240)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$44.8	$44.8	+$0	37% 970-1635 (2605)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$34.3	$38.5	+$4.2	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
SM smithagent<$100	Yesavg 96.1¢	$21.43	$21.84	+$0.42	45% 656-817 (1473)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 48.5¢	$8.97	$7.12	-$1.85	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$1.88	$1.8	-$0.08	36% 948-1669 (2617)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 17.6¢	$12.02	$0.99	-$11.03	47% 895-994 (1889)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$860.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$225.91

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$326

Value

$312.96

PnL

-$13.04

Record

30-286 (316)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$540.43

Value

$280.56

PnL

-$259.87

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$26.83

Value

$136.01

PnL

+$109.18

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$44.8

Value

$44.8

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$34.3

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$4.2

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

smithagent<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.43

Value

$21.84

PnL

+$0.42

Record

45%

656-817 (1473)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.97

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$1.85

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.08

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$12.02

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$11.03

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.