Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Bristol Rovers FC vs. Chesterfield FC: O/U 1.5
Resolved Over. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$206.75
-$78.03
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 36.7¢ | $93.76 | $67.75 | -$26 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 36.7¢ | $54.84 | — | -$54.84 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57.4¢ | $38.92 | $67.75 | +$28.83 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.8¢ | $70.7 | — | -$70.7 | 53% 2108-1855 (3963) |
 dips. | Overavg 59.7¢ | $76.01 | $112.39 | +$45.03 | 47% 973-1108 (2081) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.9¢ | $47.43 | — | -$47.43 | 37% 985-1642 (2627) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $10.92 | — | -$10.92 | 36% 455-810 (1265) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $13.39 | $21.6 | +$8.21 | 48% 1134-1214 (2348) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $4.38 | — | -$4.38 | 37% 968-1674 (2642) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $5 | +$2.15 | 48% 2109-2267 (4376) |
Invested
$93.76
Value
$67.75
PnL
-$26
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.7
Value
—
PnL
-$70.7
Record
53%
2108-1855 (3963)
dips.Invested
$76.01
Value
$112.39
PnL
+$45.03
Record
47%
973-1108 (2081)
Invested
$47.43
Value
—
PnL
-$47.43
Record
37%
985-1642 (2627)
Invested
$10.92
Value
—
PnL
-$10.92
Record
36%
455-810 (1265)
poshposh<$100Invested
$13.39
Value
$21.6
PnL
+$8.21
Record
48%
1134-1214 (2348)
Invested
$4.38
Value
—
PnL
-$4.38
Record
37%
968-1674 (2642)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.15
Record
48%
2109-2267 (4376)