Wycombe Wanderers FC vs. Huddersfield Town AFC: Draw at halftime?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 97¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$28.3K
$-1.2K
92.5¢ → 97¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121 | Yesavg 92.6¢ | $19.4K | $18.8K | +$830.38 | 85% 106-18 (124) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70 | Yesavg 92.3¢ | $8.3K | $8.1K | +$385.73 | 77% 141-43 (184) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 7.5¢ | $3.8K | $1.4K | $-2.4K | 50% 48622-48197 (96819) |
WH whosay<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $7.74 | $17.44 | +$9.7 | 57% 1299-970 (2269) |
CA canupdatelateron<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $12.14 | $11.76 | +$0.59 | 63% 673-401 (1074) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.4¢ | $51.55 | $6.12 | -$49.29 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 6.7¢ | $180.29 | $5.59 | -$6.48 | 50% 23496-23498 (46994) |
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121Invested
$19,396.79
Value
$18.8K
PnL
+$830.38
Record
85%
106-18 (124)
Invested
$8,341.72
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$385.73
Record
77%
141-43 (184)
Invested
$3,787.63
Value
$1.4K
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
50%
48622-48197 (96819)
Invested
$7.74
Value
$17.44
PnL
+$9.7
Record
57%
1299-970 (2269)
Invested
$12.14
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$0.59
Record
63%
673-401 (1074)
Invested
$51.55
Value
$6.12
PnL
-$49.29
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$180.29
Value
$5.59
PnL
-$6.48
Record
50%
23496-23498 (46994)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.