Will AFC Wimbledon win on 2026-11-14?

2 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 59¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 14

Yes42¢No58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$38.2K

Combined PnL

-$40.75

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 16 top traders (13%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares41,565

Combined PnL+$310.03

Yes14 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares33,689

Combined PnL-$350.78

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 57.8¢	$24.0K	$24.3K	+$310	2% 3-133 (136)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 42.4¢	$7.2K	$7.0K	-$156.96	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 41.5¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$100	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 43.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$80.48	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 43.3¢	$511.36	$478.43	-$32.93	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$401.86	$415.87	+$14.02	40% 117-175 (292)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$191.24	$198.03	+$6.78	48% 286-304 (590)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$96.69	$102.44	+$5.76	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$103.57	$101.25	-$2.32	56% 462-367 (829)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$84	$89	+$5	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.3¢	$86.75	$83.21	-$3.54	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$73.33	$67.5	-$5.83	30% 334-774 (1108)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$37.34	$36.82	-$0.52	46% 487-575 (1062)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$16.19	$16.95	+$0.76	59% 708-482 (1190)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 55¢	$3.85	$3.89	+$0.04	36% 945-1666 (2611)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$3.01	$2.49	-$0.53	9% 30-286 (316)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$24,001.5

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$310

Record

3-133 (136)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,159.17

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$156.96

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,150

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$100

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,324.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$80.48

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$511.36

Value

$478.43

PnL

-$32.93

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$401.86

Value

$415.87

PnL

+$14.02

Record

40%

117-175 (292)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.24

Value

$198.03

PnL

+$6.78

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$96.69

Value

$102.44

PnL

+$5.76

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.57

Value

$101.25

PnL

-$2.32

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84

Value

$89

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.75

Value

$83.21

PnL

-$3.54

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.33

Value

$67.5

PnL

-$5.83

Record

30%

334-774 (1108)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.34

Value

$36.82

PnL

-$0.52

Record

46%

487-575 (1062)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.95

PnL

+$0.76

Record

59%

708-482 (1190)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.01

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.53

Record

30-286 (316)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 16 top traders (13%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.