Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AFC Wimbledon vs. Blackpool FC: O/U 3.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

33.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares20,042

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$4.76

Over — 89%Under — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 34¢	$2.9K	$2.5K	-$335.94	37% 970-1635 (2605)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 34¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$187.04	36% 933-1644 (2577)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 34¢	$929.66	$820.28	-$109.37	35% 440-800 (1240)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 34¢	$358.42	$316.26	-$42.17	47% 895-994 (1889)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 33.2¢	$528.28	$171.83	-$356.45	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 29.3¢	$496.93	$93.24	-$403.69	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Underavg 94¢	$75.2	$79.96	+$4.76	76% 235-76 (311)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$68	$49.87	-$6.31	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$33.66	$29.7	-$3.96	48% 286-306 (592)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,855.53

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$335.94

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$1,589.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$187.04

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$929.66

Value

$820.28

PnL

-$109.37

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$358.42

Value

$316.26

PnL

-$42.17

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$528.28

Value

$171.83

PnL

-$356.45

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$496.93

Value

$93.24

PnL

-$403.69

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Under

Invested

$75.2

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$4.76

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68

Value

$49.87

PnL

-$6.31

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.66

Value

$29.7

PnL

-$3.96

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.