Will Blackpool FC win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$21.92

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,681

Combined PnL+$289.35

Yes5 traders

Total Value$91.06

Total Shares1,171

Combined PnL-$267.42

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67¢	$390.27	$571.65	+$181.38	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 75.6¢	$401.51	$494.17	+$92.66	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
Secondhandvinyl	Noavg 98.7¢	$268.06	$271.48	+$3.42	76% 235-76 (311)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 70.8¢	$180.32	$166.55	-$7.08	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$53.81	$72.23	+$18.42	36% 948-1669 (2617)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$285.69	$64.29	-$221.4	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 66¢	$16.21	$16.46	+$0.25	37% 960-1662 (2622)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$58	$15	-$43	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$8.7	$9.9	+$1.2	60% 712-483 (1195)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 65¢	$9.47	$9.76	+$0.29	36% 933-1644 (2577)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$0.83	$1.01	+$0.18	30% 335-776 (1111)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$5.26	$0.85	-$4.41	55% 5363-4304 (9667)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$390.27

Value

$571.65

PnL

+$181.38

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Flaznorp

Invested

$401.51

Value

$494.17

PnL

+$92.66

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Secondhandvinyl

Invested

$268.06

Value

$271.48

PnL

+$3.42

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$180.32

Value

$166.55

PnL

-$7.08

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$53.81

Value

$72.23

PnL

+$18.42

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$285.69

Value

$64.29

PnL

-$221.4

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$16.21

Value

$16.46

PnL

+$0.25

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58

Value

$15

PnL

-$43

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.7

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$1.2

Record

60%

712-483 (1195)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$9.47

Value

$9.76

PnL

+$0.29

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.18

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.26

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$4.41

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.