Will Wigan Athletic FC win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 100¢ · $949 held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$948.93

Combined PnL

-$177.98

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$709.13

Total Shares731

Combined PnL-$17.48

No9 traders

Total Value$239.8

Total Shares965

Combined PnL-$160.5

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 65.5¢	$401.89	$345.22	-$56.67	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
SU suntori	Yesavg 88¢	$193.32	$219.57	+$26.25	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
SM smithagent	Yesavg 96.3¢	$107.15	$111.21	+$4.06	45% 656-817 (1473)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 53.4¢	$169.49	$106.35	-$63.14	48% 286-306 (592)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$44.48	$48.07	+$3.59	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 30.5¢	$75.49	$38.59	-$36.9	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$18.85	$27.85	+$9	56% 463-370 (833)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 30.4¢	$32.34	$27.69	-$4.65	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$11.4	$8.14	-$3.26	37% 970-1635 (2605)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$28.52	$4.96	-$23.56	36% 948-1669 (2617)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 3.7¢	$4.15	$4.29	+$0.15	35% 440-800 (1240)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$4.05	$4.05	+$0	82% 709-151 (860)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$8.09	$1.67	-$1.32	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.23	-$0.13	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$31.45	$0.04	-$31.41	36% 933-1644 (2577)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$401.89

Value

$345.22

PnL

-$56.67

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$193.32

Value

$219.57

PnL

+$26.25

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

smithagent

Yes

Invested

$107.15

Value

$111.21

PnL

+$4.06

Record

45%

656-817 (1473)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$169.49

Value

$106.35

PnL

-$63.14

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$44.48

Value

$48.07

PnL

+$3.59

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$75.49

Value

$38.59

PnL

-$36.9

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.85

Value

$27.85

PnL

+$9

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$32.34

Value

$27.69

PnL

-$4.65

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$8.14

PnL

-$3.26

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$28.52

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$23.56

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.15

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

709-151 (860)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$8.09

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$31.45

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$31.41

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.