Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Plymouth Argyle FC: O/U 2.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$21.24

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 47.5¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,861

Combined PnL+$32.04

Over1 trader

Total Value$112.32

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$10.8

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 45.5¢	$560.72	$570.29	+$9.57	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 45¢	$365.52	$381.76	+$16.25	35% 437-797 (1234)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46¢	$320.11	$327.12	+$7.01	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$132.87	$130.27	-$2.6	56% 460-366 (826)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.4¢	$69.05	$71.44	+$2.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.5¢	$63.82	$58.83	-$4.99
DV dv-pm	Overavg 57¢	$123.12	$112.32	-$10.8	43% 29-38 (67)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$155.49	$70.24	-$1.78	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Underavg 45¢	$67.38	$66.52	-$0.86	48% 285-304 (589)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$33.75	$35.25	+$1.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$33.63	$31.27	-$2.36
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$53.64	$54.22	+$0.58	37% 956-1658 (2614)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$15.41	$15.57	+$0.16	36% 926-1642 (2568)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$13.69	$13.84	+$0.15	37% 965-1630 (2595)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.35	+$0.1	42% 989-1357 (2346)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$560.72

Value

$570.29

PnL

+$9.57

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$365.52

Value

$381.76

PnL

+$16.25

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$320.11

Value

$327.12

PnL

+$7.01

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$132.87

Value

$130.27

PnL

-$2.6

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

Both legs:

Under$69.0545.4¢+$2.39

Over$63.8257.5¢-$4.99

dv-pm

Over

Invested

$123.12

Value

$112.32

PnL

-$10.8

Record

43%

29-38 (67)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$155.49

Value

$70.24

PnL

-$1.78

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$67.38

Value

$66.52

PnL

-$0.86

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

Both legs:

Invested

$53.64

Value

$54.22

PnL

+$0.58

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.41

Value

$15.57

PnL

+$0.16

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.69

Value

$13.84

PnL

+$0.15

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.