Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-11-14?
12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 53¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 92%
1 arb excluded
$32.1K
$715.8
56.2¢ → 52.5¢
-7% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Yesavg 43.7¢ | $14.2K | $15.4K | +$1.2K | 2% 3-133 (136) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 56.3¢ | $6.1K | $5.9K | -$200.37 | 36% 945-1666 (2611) |
 RN1 | Noavg 56¢ | $5.6K | $5.5K | -$150 | 55% 5362-4303 (9665) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 56.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$47.77 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 56.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$41.28 | 37% 353-603 (956) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 56.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$40.99 | 59% 3763-2587 (6350) |
MO mouzsynapse | Noavg 55¢ | $458.22 | $454.05 | -$4.17 | 40% 117-175 (292) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $451.57 | $418.86 | -$23.61 | 53% 1343-1170 (2513) |
BI biying99999 | Noavg 55.9¢ | $363.29 | $354.25 | -$9.04 | 35% 104-193 (297) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $216.35 | $223.17 | +$6.82 | 49% 3811-3974 (7785) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56¢ | $127.27 | $134.09 | +$6.82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41¢ | $89.08 | $89.08 | +$0 | |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $134.04 | $138.06 | +$4.02 | 48% 286-304 (590) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $59.21 | $56.61 | -$2.6 | 36% 928-1642 (2570) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $15.83 | $15.83 | -$0 | 56% 462-367 (829) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $14 | $14.49 | +$0.49 | 59% 708-482 (1190) |
Invested
$14,208.62
Value
$15.4K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
2%
3-133 (136)
Invested
$6,140.26
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$200.37
Record
36%
945-1666 (2611)
RN1Invested
$5,600
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$150
Record
55%
5362-4303 (9665)
Invested
$1,253.9
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$47.77
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$1,247.04
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$41.28
Record
37%
353-603 (956)
Invested
$1,235.73
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$40.99
Record
59%
3763-2587 (6350)
Invested
$458.22
Value
$454.05
PnL
-$4.17
Record
40%
117-175 (292)
VeryLucky888Invested
$451.57
Value
$418.86
PnL
-$23.61
Record
53%
1343-1170 (2513)
Invested
$363.29
Value
$354.25
PnL
-$9.04
Record
35%
104-193 (297)
Invested
$216.35
Value
$223.17
PnL
+$6.82
Record
49%
3811-3974 (7785)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.04
Value
$138.06
PnL
+$4.02
Record
48%
286-304 (590)
Invested
$59.21
Value
$56.61
PnL
-$2.6
Record
36%
928-1642 (2570)
Invested
$15.83
Value
$15.83
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
462-367 (829)
Invested
$14
Value
$14.49
PnL
+$0.49
Record
59%
708-482 (1190)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.