Will Plymouth Argyle FC win on 2026-11-14?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$809.38

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,680

Combined PnL+$610.5

Yes3 traders

Total Value$318.43

Total Shares1,061

Combined PnL+$198.88

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 80.6¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$307.84	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 77.4¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$307.63	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 85¢	$469.6	$332.34	-$137.26	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
└ No leg	Noavg 85¢	$238.87	$259.99	+$21.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.9¢	$230.73	$72.35	-$158.38
0X 0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR	Yesavg 8.9¢	$79.25	$265.93	+$186.68	27% 7-19 (26)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 77¢	$190.16	$172.87	-$17.29	37% 960-1662 (2622)
Secondhandvinyl	Noavg 95¢	$104.14	$109.54	+$5.4	76% 235-76 (311)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 91¢	$98.22	$98.76	+$0.54	47% 895-994 (1889)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$48.7	$51	+$12.2	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 92¢	$28.45	$28.91	+$0.46	36% 948-1669 (2617)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 69¢	$16.56	$22.56	+$6	60% 712-483 (1195)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 70¢	$17.2	$12.03	-$0.15	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 91¢	$13.13	$11.96	-$1.16	42% 995-1363 (2358)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$10.94	$10.73	-$0.21	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$9.19	$10.46	+$1.27	37% 970-1635 (2605)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 69¢	$8.35	$8.47	+$0.12	36% 933-1644 (2577)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.9	$7	+$0.1	44% 372-467 (839)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.26	$4.2	-$0.06	34% 368-702 (1070)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.5	-$0	40% 433-650 (1083)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,884.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$307.84

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,422.15

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$307.63

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$469.6

Value

$332.34

PnL

-$137.26

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Both legs:

No$238.8785¢+$21.12

Yes$230.7323.9¢-$158.38

0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR

Yes

Invested

$79.25

Value

$265.93

PnL

+$186.68

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

LightParadox

Invested

$190.16

Value

$172.87

PnL

-$17.29

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

Secondhandvinyl

Invested

$104.14

Value

$109.54

PnL

+$5.4

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$98.22

Value

$98.76

PnL

+$0.54

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.7

Value

$51

PnL

+$12.2

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$28.45

Value

$28.91

PnL

+$0.46

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$16.56

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$6

Record

60%

712-483 (1195)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$12.03

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$13.13

Value

$11.96

PnL

-$1.16

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$10.94

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$0.21

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$9.19

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$1.27

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$8.35

Value

$8.47

PnL

+$0.12

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.06

Record

34%

368-702 (1070)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.